Electrolyser manufacturing capacity could be around two times greater than demand in 2030, according to a new report by Clean Energy Associates (CEA).

The report forecasts global manufacturing capacity to reach 54GW by 2027, with China expect to continue to account for “almost half.” But as capacity grows, CEA has said the actual usable capacity is expected to be “less than the nameplate capacity.”

To determine its demand estimates, CEA applied capacity factors of 40% and 65% to the International Energy (IEA) STEP green hydrogen demand scenario. In both scenarios, CEA said, “there is a gap between nameplate capacity and the annual demand.”

Furthermore, CEA said only the “most mature” technologies have credible expansion plans, saying alkaline electrolysers lead capacity volume due to low costs.

It said, “Alkaline electrolyser will remain the most produced technology in the next ten years due to their cost advantage and potential efficiency improvements.”

H2 View’s own analysis of the IEA’s 2021 Hydrogen Projects Database revealed of the 123 electrolytic hydrogen production projects at final investment decision (FID), 31 were PEM and 21 were alkaline – with average output of 2,000 tonnes/year and 3,000 tonnes/year – representing 54,000 tonnes of PEM-produced hydrogen and 73,000 tonnes of alkaline-produced hydrogen.